Weitere Netzfunde in der wöchentlichen Zusammenstellung.
The Drone Has Replaced The Tank
Military strategists are still fighting the last war while the battlefield has already changed. Every major conflict throughout history has been defined by a technological revolution. Gunpowder ended the age of castles. Tanks transformed World War II. Precision missiles reshaped modern warfare. Now we have entered the age of the drone. The military that cannot dominate the skies with unmanned systems will lose, regardless of how many tanks, aircraft, or soldiers it possesses.
South Korea has reached the same conclusion. Its Defense Ministry announced that it will train approximately 500,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines as “drone warriors.” Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said every service member should become as proficient with drones as they are with their personal weapons. The plan calls for procuring 11,000 commercial drones by the end of 2026, expanding to 60,000 training drones by 2029, while also acquiring more than 20,000 low-cost combat drones by 2030. Seoul is accelerating production of loitering munitions, AI-enabled drone swarms, laser weapons, and microwave systems designed to destroy incoming drones.”
They are responding to the lessons of Ukraine, where inexpensive FPV drones costing only hundreds or thousands of dollars routinely destroy tanks worth millions. The battlefield has become saturated with unmanned aircraft. Ukraine plans to manufacture roughly 7 million military drones in 2026 after producing about 4 million in 2025. According to Ukrainian officials, drones now account for the overwhelming majority of battlefield strikes, fundamentally changing military doctrine. Entire branches of both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are now dedicated solely to unmanned systems.
A modern drone operator can eliminate armor, artillery, supply convoys, or individual soldiers from miles away while sitting in relative safety. Fiber-optic drones have largely defeated electronic jamming. AI-assisted targeting is reducing operator workload. Swarm attacks can overwhelm traditional air defenses that were designed to intercept aircraft, not hundreds of inexpensive autonomous systems arriving simultaneously. Ukraine has even developed interceptor drones whose sole mission is to hunt other drones, creating an entirely new layer of aerial combat.
Russia formally established its Unmanned Systems Forces, with Ukrainian military estimates claiming the branch could expand from roughly 80,000 personnel today to more than 165,000 during 2026 and perhaps over 200,000 by 2030. NATO countries are pouring billions into drone production, counter-drone technologies, autonomous weapons, and electronic warfare. The United States, China, Israel, Turkey, and Europe are all racing to build domestic drone industries because they understand the next war will not be won by the side with the largest army. It will be won by the side that can produce, replace, and innovate faster than its opponent.
This is precisely why I have warned that the War Cycle is changing the global economy. Wars no longer require decades to build fleets of battleships or thousands of heavy tanks. A nation with sufficient manufacturing capacity can produce tens of thousands of drones every month. The barriers to entry have collapsed. Software updates now matter as much as ammunition. Engineers have become as important as infantry.
The defense industry is no longer limited to traditional contractors producing aircraft carriers and fighter jets. Semiconductor manufacturers, AI companies, battery producers, optics firms, communications specialists, robotics companies, and rare-earth miners have all become part of the defense sector. This is why governments are scrambling to secure critical minerals, expand chip production, and protect supply chains. They are preparing for a world where industrial capacity determines military survival.
The next great conflict will not resemble Iraq, Afghanistan, or even the opening stages of Ukraine. It will be fought by autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, and millions of inexpensive drones operating continuously across every battlefield. The drone has become what the machine gun was in World War I and what the tank became in World War II. Anyone who fails to recognize that reality is preparing for a war that no longer exists.
Anm. d. Red.: Derweil versucht die Schweizer Armee noch immer mit Konzepten aus dem Kalten Krieg den nächsten (offenbar absehbaren) Krieg zu gewinnen. Die Lehren scheinen noch immer nicht an der Papiermühlestrasse angekommen zu sein. Der Zugang zu Kritischen Mineralien (“REM”) ist nirgendwo ein Thema. Vielleicht auch deshalb, weil dann die Neutralität helfen würde, diese Rohstoffe sichern zu können.
Es gibt auch keine Anzeichen, dass eine Doktrin entwickelt würde, welche der Revolution auf dem Schlachtfeld wirklich Rechnung trägt. Lieber führt man Bestehende fort, um sich nicht eingestehen zu müssen, dass man die Revolution verschlafen hat.
Die Schweiz hätte grundsätzlich sehr gute Voraussetzungen, um eine sehr gute, effiziente Armee der Zukunft schaffen zu können. Aber sie läuft leider täglich in die falsche Richtung.
European Taxpayers Spend 3.9B Euros On Drones For Ukraine
The European Union just sent another €3.9 billion to Ukraine to buy drones. This is not humanitarian aid. This is war financing. Reuters reported that the latest transfer is part of the EU’s new €90 billion loan program designed to keep Kyiv funded through 2026 and 2027. The money is being directed toward Ukraine’s drone procurement, meaning European taxpayers are now openly financing the weapons system that has become central to this war.
Do not let anyone pretend Europe is a neutral party. The EU Council itself says support for Ukraine has reached €211.3 billion since the war began. That figure includes military, financial, humanitarian, and refugee-related support. Now Brussels is adding a €90 billion loan on top of that to cover Ukraine’s budget and defense needs for the next two years. This is not charity. This is Europe admitting it intends to keep the war going because Ukraine cannot finance it on its own.
They told the people this was about defending democracy. Then they censored dissent. They told taxpayers this would be temporary. Now they are financing Ukraine through 2027. They told everyone sanctions would collapse Russia. Instead, Europe entered depressionary conditions while Russia adapted. Now they are funding drones because the battlefield has shifted into a technological meat grinder.
Europe Is Already Preparing For War
People keep asking when World War III will begin. They are asking the wrong question. Europe is already behaving as though it is at war. I have warned for years that the politicians in Brussels would never allow peace because the sovereign debt crisis requires an external enemy. Every week, another European government announces more military spending, another mobilization plan, another emergency measure, another speech warning the public to prepare for conflict. This is no longer speculation. It is policy.
Now Poland’s foreign intelligence chief, Col. Paweł Szota, has made one of the clearest admissions yet. He warned, “The level of Russian aggression is very high, and the risk of military confrontation is real.” He added that Poland “must operate as if war with Russia is inevitable“ because waiting until conflict begins would be too late. Those are extraordinary statements from the head of a NATO intelligence service. Governments do not talk this way unless they are already planning for the next stage.”
Szota explained that Russia “is systematically pushing red lines, testing NATO’s responses,” and argued that the Kremlin views Poland and NATO’s eastern flank as “an obstacle to achieving its imperial ambitions.” He also warned that Moscow could continue the war in Ukraine for years, sacrifice its own economy, and expand hybrid operations against NATO members, including provocations in the Baltic region. Europe is no longer speaking about diplomacy. It is openly discussing escalation scenarios and military contingencies.
This is precisely what our computer has been forecasting. The 2026 Panic Cycle was never simply about financial markets. It marked the acceleration of geopolitical instability. Governments always require a crisis when they cannot solve the debt problem. Europe is entering an economic depression while military budgets are exploding. Germany is debating conscription once again. Poland is rapidly expanding one of the largest armies in Europe. NATO members are increasing defense spending toward 5% of GDP. Civil defense campaigns are appearing across the continent. These are not the actions of governments expecting peace. They are the actions of governments preparing their populations psychologically and financially for war.
Once governments convince themselves war is inevitable, they begin making decisions that ensure it becomes inevitable. Every mobilization by one side is interpreted as aggression by the other. Every sanctions package invites retaliation. Every troop deployment produces another deployment in response. History shows that wars often become unavoidable long before the first shots are fired because political leaders eliminate every possible path back to diplomacy.
I have repeatedly stated that the sovereign debt crisis and the War Cycle are converging. Europe cannot finance its welfare state, its Green agenda, and endless military expansion simultaneously. Something has to give. Throughout history, governments buried under debt have repeatedly turned toward external conflict because war postpones domestic political reckoning. It creates an excuse for deficits, emergency powers, censorship, and capital controls while redirecting public anger toward a foreign adversary.
Ukraine has become the catalyst, not the destination. The computer has consistently warned that 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. Europe is no longer preparing to avoid war. Its own intelligence chiefs are now publicly telling their citizens to prepare because they increasingly believe war is coming. That should concern every investor far more than the daily fluctuations in the stock market.
Anm. d. Red.: Haben Sie etwas dazu von unserem NDB gehört? Erscheint diese Krise auf ihrem Radar? Nein. Deshalb sage ich schon lange: Der NDB ist völlig blind was die wahren Gefahren betrifft!
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Putin Warns the West: Russia is Ready
It has been a while since I have written about Russia and the war in Ukraine, but Vladimir Putin’s speech on Tuesday (23 June) to graduates of Russia’s higher military academies and security institutions (military cadets/officers) at the Kremlin merits attention because it carries an indirect but profound warning to the West.
I am focusing on the Western threat section of the speech because it signals that Russia, in reaction to Western actions, is prepared for a wider war. The speech followed a consistent four-part structure: the West manufactures the threat; it then accuses Russia of creating it; this is a historically repeated pattern going back to 1941; and Russia’s response is both military preparedness and a principled alternative vision of world order. What made this speech most salient was the explicit statement that NATO has moved from proxy support to open preparation for direct war — an escalatory claim calibrated to remind the graduates, and the broader audience, of the stakes of their service.
This framing — Russia as perpetual reactor, never initiator — is the foundational claim on which all other arguments in the speech rest.
Putin made a pointed distinction between past and present Western behavior that was clearly intended to signal a new threshold had been crossed. He stated that while in the past NATO countries had limited themselves to supporting the Kyiv regime, which he characterized as having come to power illegally through armed force and a coup d’état, that the West today is openly talking about preparing for a war against Russia and is building up their military offensive budgets. German Chancellor Mertz, for example, has been quite vocal in this regard.
Putin argued that to justify these expenses and the radical militarization of their countries, the heads of NATO and EU states are blantantly lying (my words) about Russia’s alleged military threat.
Looming over the speech was the memory of the Great Patriotic War… The speech was delivered one day after the 85th anniversary of Operation Barbarossa. Putin made the parallel explicit and unambiguous. He argued that even after the treacherous attack on the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, the West and Hitler’s Germany tried to accuse the Soviet Union and Stalin of aggression against what we currently know as the “collective West,” and that it is surprising that certain quasi-scientific quarters continue to seriously consider this. Putin was not simply invoking World War II nostalgia for domestic consumption. He was making a specific epistemological claim — i.e., that the Western narrative about Russian aggression today is structurally identical to the Nazi propaganda claim that the Soviet Union was the aggressor in 1941, and that both are false by the same logic.
Putin minced no words… He stated that Russia is ready to promptly and appropriately respond to any external and internal threats, and that in accordance with the State Armament Programme, Russia is focused on modernizing its nuclear triad and the Army, and strengthening the combat capability of the Aerospace Forces and the Navy. The explicit mention of the nuclear triad in direct proximity to the discussion of Western preparation for war against Russia was a pointed message to Donald Trump and the rest of NATO.
In discussing the Western threat, Putin indirectly chided the ineffectiveness of Western economic pressure. He stated that all technological and military achievements are being accomplished using Russia’s own domestic scientific and technological capabilities, and that all of it is being supported by steady funding made possible by Russia’s stable and resilient economy. He reminded the cadets that Western efforts to cripple Russia had failed and that Russia met that challenge head on by ramping up production, producing new weapons and modifying existing systems to confront new threats.
I believe that Putin’s speech was a warning to the West that Russia will not make the same mistakes that made Operation Barbarossa possible, and it is ready to confront and defeat NATO if it persists in facilitating attacks against the Russian people.
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The NY Times Lies About Russian and Ukrainian Casualties
The NY Times published an outrageous article on Wednesday that perpetuates the myth that Ukraine is inflicting massive casualties on Russia. I suppose this is just another part of the propaganda game to deceive the US public about Ukraine’s chances to prevail in the war with Russia. Let’s start with the NY Times ridiculous assertions:
Russian Casualties: Estimated at over 1.1 million total (killed and wounded) since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Russia is losing soldiers at a high rate but continues to replenish forces through recruitment and convicts. Russian Killed in Action (KIA): Approximately 350,000 – 400,000.
Ukrainian Casualties: Estimated at around 400,000–500,000 total (killed and wounded). Ukraine’s losses have been severe, particularly in 2025–2026, due to Russian artillery and drone superiority. Ukrainian Killed in Action (KIA): Approximately 180,000 – 220,000.”
This is utter nonsense.
Let’s start with the Russian/Ukrainian exchange of soldiers bodies. Since June 2025, the ratio of Ukrainian bodies returned versus Russian bodies returned runs at approximately 35–37 to 1. As Kyiv-based analytical platform VoxUkraine has explained, this directly reflects the ground war’s asymmetry: advancing Russian forces capture Ukrainian positions and the bodies of Ukrainian defenders who died holding them, while Ukraine recovers comparatively few Russian bodies in return. In other words, there is no stalemate and Ukraine is retreating, not advancing since June 2025.
Next, let’s look at the disparity in artillery fires. Artillery, through mid-2025, remained the primary weapon for killing and wounding soldiers on both sides. Across the full war, Russia has fired approximately 3 to 4 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine — consistent with RUSI’s assessment that “Russia has fired about four times more rounds than Ukraine, on average, since the start of the invasion.” The ratio varied dramatically within that average: as low as 1:1 briefly in summer 2023 when Ukraine’s Western ammunition arrived in volume, and as high as 10:1 in the worst months of early 2024.
The most significant recent development is what West Point’s Modern War Institute described as the “industrial window” problem. In 2025, Russia produced approximately 7 million rounds per year — roughly 19,000 per day — while consuming an estimated 10,000–15,000 per day. This means Russia in 2025 was rebuilding its stockpiles, not drawing them down, for the first time since 2022. The “window closes” for Russia only if Western supply to Ukraine can either push Ukrainian consumption above Russian production, or if Ukrainian deep strikes on ammunition plants and depots sufficiently degrade Russian throughput.
Once again, the NY Times wants you to believe that Russia, which is firing almost four times the number of artillery shells than Ukraine, is suffering double the casualties.
What about drones? Russia is inflicting significantly more damage on Ukraine through its drone campaign than Ukraine is inflicting on Russia through its equivalent program. Russia launched more than 54,000 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine in 2025 alone, at a sustained rate of 135–200 per day. Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign against Russia has achieved genuine operational results — the refinery strikes are documented, the damage to Russian fuel supply is real, and Putin’s public admission of a domestic fuel crisis confirms this. But the scale and human cost of what Ukraine is absorbing vastly exceeds what Russia is absorbing.
Ukraine’s problems from Russia’s drone campaign are existential pressures on a society that is already absorbing 30,000–34,000 military casualties per month. In short, Russia’s drone force is larger, is producing at greater scale, is hitting more targets successfully, and is inflicting more damage on its adversary. Yet, to hammer home the point again, the NY Times wants you to believe that Russia is suffering double the casualties of Ukraine.
Last, but certainly not least, do not forget about the FAB glide bombs. The term is used loosely to cover Soviet-era free-fall bombs — FAB-500 (500kg), FAB-1000 (1,000kg), FAB-1500 (1,500kg), and FAB-3000 (3,000kg) — fitted with the UMPK (Universal Glide and Correction Module) kit, a roughly $20,000 add-on package of pop-out wings and satellite guidance that converts a dumb iron bomb into a guided glide munition. The UMPK gives the FAB-500 a range of 60–70km, and newer versions extend that to 100–200km.
Since 2023 Russia has dropped approximately 125,000–135,000 glide bombs on Ukrainian defensive positions. The glide bomb campaign has played a significant role in Russia’s military advances. The fall of Avdiivka, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk were each preceded by intensive glide bomb preparation that destroyed fortifications faster than Ukraine could repair or reinforce them. And yet the NY Times wants us to believe that these bombs barely killed or wounded Ukrainian soldiers manning defensive positions… Right! 125,000 bombs and few, if any, casualties.
Finally, let’s turn to MediaZona. According to data collected through cross-referenced open sources — i.e., obituaries, civil death certificates, geo-located graves, social media announcements, regional media reports, funeral notices, and cemetery records — the Russian KIA, confirmed by name, is 227,700 as of June 19, 2026. This is the running total of individual Russian military deaths that Mediazona, BBC News Russian, and a team of volunteers have confirmed.
The West continues to lie about Russian losses while blithely ignoring Ukraine’s staggering losses… Ukrainian KIA are estimated to be in excess of 1.5 million. And they died for what? Sacrificed to Western hegemonic ambitions.
Only 9 Days of Sour Crude Left in the US SPR?
The real news is on the oil front. I want to remind you what , President Donald Trump said at the G7 summit in June 2026 regarding the world’s oil supplies:
“We only have about 4 weeks of oil left if the Strait stays closed. We have to get it open — now. This is not sustainable.”
I think the vast majority of people who heard Trump’s statement assumed that this applies to both sweet and sour crude. It does not. It is all about the sour crude, which is the source of diesel and aviation fuels.
On March 11, 2026, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over approximately 120 days in response to rising oil prices resulting from United States attacks on Iran. At that drawdown pace — roughly 1.4 million barrels per day — the sour component of the SPR would be depleted of the released portion within the 120-day window, without any Persian Gulf replacement arriving via Cape routing until late summer at the earliest. So let’s do the math: 20 days in March, 30 days in April, 31 days in May, 30 days in June = 111 days. In other words, we have 9 days of sour crude left in the SPR.
Why is sour crude more important than sweet crude to the US economy? The first thing that seems counterintuitive is that sour crude — crude with high sulfur content, which sounds undesirable — is actually the preferred feedstock for complex US refineries producing diesel and jet fuel. This is not in spite of the sulfur but because of the broader molecular characteristics that accompany high-sulfur crude grades. In other words, without sour crude the US refineries will not be able to produce diesel and jet fuel.
Once the sour crude in the SPR is exhausted, the US does not have an alternative supply — i.e., the US is dependent on sour crude imports.
Although Trump signed the MoU with Iran in order to get the sour crude flowing again — note that JD Vance admitted in an interview with the Daily Wire on Wednesday that the only reason the US signed the MoU was to rebuild US reserves — the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf is not heading to the US.
Even if a convoy of tankers left the Persian Gulf on Friday heading to the US, the voyage will take at least 42 days, which means that the US will be in a serious deficit of sour crude from 12 July until 23 August at the earliest. During that period we are likely to see the price of diesel and aviation fuel increase dramatically. Now do you understand why Trump signed the MoU with Iran?
Ein Zeichen der Schwäche
Das wachsende Defizit der EU-Staaten im Außenhandel mit China treibt die EU schon seit geraumer Zeit um. Im vergangenen Jahr erreichte es ein Volumen von 360 Milliarden Euro – rund eine Milliarde Euro pro Tag. Ursache ist, dass die Volksrepublik immer mehr Güter auf höchstem technologischem Niveau sehr kostengünstig produzieren kann – nicht zuletzt dank ihrer Wirtschaftsplanung und dank der Skaleneffekte, die die Produktion für einen riesigen Heimatmarkt wie China erlaubt. Die chinesischen Waren konkurrieren immer mehr mit europäischen und erweisen sich dabei zunehmend als erfolgreich.
Auf die erstarkende chinesische Konkurrenz, die inzwischen auch innerhalb der EU einheimische Konzerne in die Defensive zu drängen beginnt, reagieren Brüssel sowie die Mitgliedstaaten der Union mit Abwehrmaßnahmen. Bereits im Oktober 2024 verhängte die EU etwa Zölle zwischen 17 und 35,3 Prozent auf Importe chinesischer Elektroautos. Weitere Maßnahmen sind in Arbeit – etwa Restriktionen gegen Telekommunikationstechnologie aus der Volksrepublik, von der behauptet wird, sie stelle ein Sicherheitsrisiko dar.
Mehr deutsches (und niederländisches) Engagement an der NATO-Ostflanke – und eine US-Zusage
Deutschland hat zusammen mit den Niederlanden mehr Verantwortung an der Nordostflanke der NATO übernommen: Das deutsch-niederländische Korps mit Sitz in Münster stellt künftig das taktische Hauptquartier der Landstreitkräfte der Allianz für Estland und Lettland. Der US-Kommandeur für Europa sicherte bei der Übergabe am (heutigen) Dienstag in der estnisch-lettischen Grenzstadt Valga zu, dass die USA auch weiterhin zur Verteidigung des europäischen Bündnisgebiets stünden.
Bislang wurde die Verteidigung der Nordostflanke der NATO, von Polen bis nach Estland, vom Multinationalen Korps in Stettin kommandiert. Mit einem zweiten Korps für diesen Bereich soll die Kampfkraft der Landstreitkräfte des Bündnisses in dieser Region bei einem möglichen Konflikt mit Russland gestärkt werden. Das Korps-Hauptquartier des Deutsch-Niederländischen Korps, im NATO-Jargon 1GNC (für 1. German-Netherlands Corps), derzeit unter dem Kommando des deutschen Generalleutnants Peter Mirow, soll nach Angaben des Deutschen Heeres allerdings seinen Sitz in Münster behalten.
Der Kommandeur der U.S. Army Europe and Africa und zugleich kommandierender General der NATO-Landstreitkräfte, der US-General Chris Donahue, lobte bei der Übergabe das zunehmende Engagement der Europäer – und sicherte zugleich zu, dass sie bei der Verteidigung der Ostflanke des Bündnisses auch weiterhin mit den US-Streitkräften rechnen könnten: You’re ready to do more and following words with action, and the United States will be there alongside you.
Anm. d. Red.: Der General lobte die Europäer, dass sie bald für Amerika sterben wollen würden – genauso wie es vor ihnen die Ukrainer getan haben. Die Europäer klopfen sich derweil gegenseitig auf die Schultern…
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