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China’s Beidou Satellite System is a Game Changer in Iran’s War with the US
During the 12-day war in June 2025, Iranian missiles and drones struggled against sophisticated Israeli and American electronic warfare. GPS jamming and spoofing repeatedly disrupted their guidance systems, limiting their effectiveness during the intense 12-day conflict. Fast-forward to early 2026, and the battlefield dynamics had shifted dramatically. Iran’s precision strikes began threading through advanced air defenses, hitting high-value targets across the Gulf with surprising accuracy. Intelligence analysts pointed to one key factor: Iran had ditched GPS for China’s Beidou satellite navigation system.
Losing navigation mid-ocean due to reliance on a foreign-controlled system—became a pivotal lesson for Beijing. It accelerated development of an independent satellite navigation network: Beidou (BDS).
- BDS-1 (2000s) provided initial regional coverage.
- BDS-2 expanded capabilities.
- BDS-3 (completed around 2020) transformed it into a global powerhouse with dozens of satellites, far more ground stations (especially in the Global South), and superior accuracy in many regions compared to GPS.
Today, Beidou outperforms GPS in coverage and precision across roughly 165 countries, offering a resilient alternative that cannot be unilaterally jammed or spoofed by Western powers.
After the 2025 conflict exposed vulnerabilities in GPS-dependent systems, Iran moved decisively. By late 2025 or early 2026, it integrated Beidou into its missile and drone arsenals. Reports from March 2026 already highlighted dramatic improvements: Iranian munitions evaded electronic countermeasures that had worked months earlier.
Key advantages of Beidou for Iran include:
- Resistance to jamming/spoofing — Advanced frequency-hopping and anti-interference tech.
- Higher accuracy — Circular error probable under 5 meters in key regions, enabling precise strikes with fewer munitions.
- Real-time command — Secure messaging allows mid-flight adjustments over long distances.
This upgrade has contributed significantly to Iran’s ability to penetrate US defenses in the Gulf countries and dramatically improved Iran’s ability to strike critical targets, which has undermined confidence in US security guarantees in the Gulf.
The US Faces a Strategic Crisis with Iran…The Rapid Depletion of US Battlefield Missiles
I have talked about the depletion of several categories of US battlefield missiles on recent podcasts and decided to give you the best available data to help you grasp the enormity of the problem. The tables below are based on the most recent publicly available analyses from CSIS, the Payne Institute, and major media outlets (as of mid-2026), and provide a current (overly optimistic in my opinion) estimate for US inventory levels of these key weapons systems. Please note that actual inventories are classified; these are informed estimates derived from DOD budget documents, procurement records, and reported expenditures during Operation Epic Fury (the US-Israeli war with Iran).
These are not just the numbers currently in the hands of US CENTCOM (i.e., the US military command in charge of the war against Iran), these are the total numbers available to all of the US military commands. If these missiles are allocated evenly to the other two critical commands — i.e., EUCOM (European Command) and PACOM (Pacific Command) — then you begin to understand the gravity of this deficit.
Let’s take the case of the Tomahawk missile. Let’s assume there are 3,000 left (I believe that is a generous over estimate) and the remaining number are divided evenly among CENTCOM, EUCOM and PACOM… That means each command gets 1,000. Does anyone want to argue that in the event of a hot war with Russia or China that EUCOM and PACOM respectively would be able to sustain combat operations for more than four weeks? Hell, CENTCOM fired 850 of them during the first four weeks of EPIC FURY.
Here’s another major problem: All eight missile systems rely on rare earth elements — there are no exceptions among modern US precision-guided weapons. The dependence is nearly universal because rare earth permanent magnets are irreplaceable for the high-performance actuators, guidance motors, and seeker gimbals that make these weapons accurate. And who controls the supply chain of these rare earth minerals? China!
The supply chain isn’t just about mining — it’s about processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing, which China controls:
- Mining: China ~60% of global rare earth oxide production
- Refining/Separation: China ~91%
- Sintered NdFeB Magnet Manufacturing: China **~94%**
The longer Donald Trump continues the war with Iran, the more damage he is inflicting on the capabilities of the US military. Think about that.
Syrsky is Out
Did you hear the story about Ukraine’s glorious defeat of the Russian army? Western media outlets during the last four weeks have been touting the amazing success of the Ukrainian army. So ask yourself… If you’re winning the war with Russia why do you fire the commanding general who is bringing you this massive victory?
Well, that’s what Cocaine Cowboy Zelensky just did. Late on Tuesday in Kyiv news broke that Zelensky dumped General Syrsky, Commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, and replaced him with Mykhailo Drapatly. Zelensky also axed Chief of the General Staff Gnatov.
Zelensky has been under fire politically since he sacked the young Defense Minister, Mikhail Fedorov, with Ukrainian citizens flooding the streets of Kyiv and Lvov to protest Federov’s removal. The move to dump Fedorov reportedly stemmed from his repeated clashes with General Syrski over Fedorov’s decision to spend scare government resources on drone programs rather than using the money to snag new recruits to populate the sagging Ukrainian front. Firing Federov set off a storm of protests across Ukraine and Zelensky apparently decided that booting Syrsky might calm the storm. Despite the protests, Zelensky named current acting minister Evgeniy Khmara as his preferred pick for the job instead — freezing Fedorov out.
Man, just think what might have happened if Syrsky was losing the war (sarcasm intended).
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